Excelsior 1-0 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Excelsior at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Excelsior face Dordrecht.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Dordrecht travel to Van Donge & De Roo Stadion to take on Excelsior in Eerste Divisie (matchday 21). The game is scheduled for Friday 10 January 2025 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Excelsior stand at 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters, Excelsior have posted 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Excelsior are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Dordrecht — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Dordrecht have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Excelsior 1.90 PPG, Dordrecht 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Excelsior, 0 for Dordrecht and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 20 Sep 2024, ended Excelsior 2–2 Dordrecht — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Excelsior in-play tendencies (last 58 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Dordrecht in-play tendencies (last 58 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 28 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Excelsior 62% and Dordrecht 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Excelsior 72% | Dordrecht 60%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Excelsior surrender their half-time lead 32% of the time, while Dordrecht have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 67% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Dordrecht surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Excelsior recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 1.66 xG and Dordrecht 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 1.047 / defence 0.789 | Dordrecht attack 1.045 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.569 / away 1.404. Excelsior have a tight defence (rating 0.789), which is pulling Dordrecht's projected output down. Data: built from Excelsior's last 20 games and Dordrecht's last 58.
Result probabilities: Excelsior 47% | Draw 28% | Dordrecht 25%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 2.11 | Draw 3.60 | Dordrecht 4.02. Excelsior hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Excelsior as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Excelsior offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Excelsior's last 10 home games and Dordrecht's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Excelsior 50% (last 10 home games) | Dordrecht 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 21 | Venue: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 10 January 2025 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 47% | Draw 28% | Dordrecht 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Excelsior 1.66 / Dordrecht 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 1.047 / def 0.789 | Dordrecht attack 1.045 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.569 / away 1.404 • Poisson stance: Excelsior (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Dordrecht xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Excelsior vs Dordrecht FAQs
What time does Excelsior vs Dordrecht kick off?
Excelsior vs Dordrecht kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 10 January 2025 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs Dordrecht?
Excelsior 1 - 0 Dordrecht.
Where is Excelsior vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What competition is Excelsior vs Dordrecht part of?
Excelsior vs Dordrecht is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 21) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 47% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Excelsior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Excelsior and Dordrecht will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Excelsior vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Excelsior's attack at 1.05x the league average against Dordrecht's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dordrecht's attack versus Excelsior's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Excelsior's last 20 games and Dordrecht's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Win
47%
2.11
28%
3.60
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Excelsior xG
Total xG
2.82
1.16
Dordrecht xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
19%
5.25
Win to Nil
15%
6.73
5%
21.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.5 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Excelsior vs Dordrecht Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Excelsior and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Excelsior and 1.16 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Excelsior come into this having played 58 games, going 20W 17D 21L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-D.
On the other side, Dordrecht sit at 1.81 PPG from 58 outings (28W 21D 9L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-D across their last five.
Dordrecht carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Excelsior — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Excelsior's home form reads 13W 8D 7L across their last 28 home games, a 1.68 PPG return.
Away from home, Dordrecht have taken 1.54 points per game from their last 28 away games (11W 10D 7L).
The Goals Picture
Excelsior are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.91 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Excelsior have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Dordrecht in 66%.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Blended
Dordrecht
Blended
Excelsior (Home) vs Dordrecht (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Excelsior
Blended
Dordrecht
Blended
❓ Excelsior vs Dordrecht Form FAQs
What form are Excelsior and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 20W 17D 21L in their last 58 games (1.33 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 28W 21D 9L in their last 58 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or Dordrecht away?
Excelsior's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 1.68 PPG; Dordrecht away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Excelsior or Dordrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Excelsior have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Dordrecht in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent in our data was on 10 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Excelsior's record when hosting Dordrecht specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Excelsior
2
Draws
0
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Excelsior vs Dordrecht H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Dordrecht?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Excelsior have won 2, Dordrecht have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and Dordrecht last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 January 2025: Excelsior 1-0 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and Dordrecht?
Excelsior have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 42% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior 57%, Dordrecht 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Excelsior and 61% for Dordrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Excelsior vs Dordrecht Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Excelsior and Dordrecht matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Excelsior's games and 71% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Excelsior and Dordrecht matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Excelsior's matches and 61% of Dordrecht's.
Do Excelsior and Dordrecht matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Excelsior's recent matches and 86% of Dordrecht's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Excelsior edge out Dordrecht 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Excelsior beat Dordrecht 1-0 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 1.66 xG and Dordrecht 1.16 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Dordrecht landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 1.05 / defence 0.79 against Dordrecht attack 1.04 / defence 1.01, drawn from 20/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 47% | Draw 28% | Dordrecht 25%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 72%, Dordrecht 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Dordrecht's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.33. Form was overturned, with Excelsior winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Excelsior (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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