🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Cambuur at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Roda vs Cambuur fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Roda and Cambuur meet at Parkstad Limburg Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Monday 20 January 2025 at 19:00 UTC.

Current Form

Roda's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Roda at Parkstad Limburg Stadion this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Parkstad Limburg Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Cambuur (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Cambuur's form when playing away from home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 2.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Roda have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Cambuur in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Roda, 0 for Cambuur and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.3 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading & In-Play

Roda — key trading statistics (59 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).

Cambuur — key trading statistics (59 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 54% versus Cambuur 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 51% | Cambuur 61%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 0.97 xG and Cambuur 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.892 / defence 0.767 | Cambuur attack 1.325 / defence 0.696. League average goals — home 1.565 / away 1.358. Cambuur's defence strength of 0.696 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Cambuur have an above-average attack strength of 1.325 — the away xG of 1.38 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Roda's defence rating of 0.767 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 59 Roda games / 59 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Roda 25% | Draw 29% | Cambuur 45%. Fair-value odds: Roda 4.00 | Draw 3.45 | Cambuur 2.22. Cambuur hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Cambuur at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cambuur if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Roda 30% | Cambuur 20% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights