🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Telstar at 55% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Telstar vs Jong PSV U21 encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Jong PSV U21 make the trip to 711 Stadion to face Telstar in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Sunday 12 January 2025 at 11:15 UTC.

Form

Telstar (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Telstar, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at 711 Stadion, Telstar have gone 3W 6D 1L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at 711 Stadion.

Jong PSV U21 have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L L D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Jong PSV U21's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

Historically, Telstar have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 7 meetings, with Jong PSV U21 managing just 1 victories and 2 draws shared.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2024, ended 2–0 with Telstar winning.

The historical record gives Telstar a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Telstar — key trading statistics (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Jong PSV U21 — key trading statistics (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 57%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Telstar 59% and Jong PSV U21 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Telstar 55% | Jong PSV U21 74%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Telstar 1.80 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Telstar attack 1.229 / defence 0.825 | Jong PSV U21 attack 0.888 / defence 0.941. League average goals — home 1.558 / away 1.392. Data: 58 Telstar games / 58 Jong PSV U21 games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Telstar 55% | Draw 25% | Jong PSV U21 20%. Fair-value odds: Telstar 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | Jong PSV U21 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Telstar (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Telstar are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Telstar 40% | Jong PSV U21 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights