Dordrecht 0-1 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dordrecht at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dordrecht vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dordrecht host Roda at M-Scores Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 21 August 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Dordrecht — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Dordrecht have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dordrecht have posted 5W 2D 3L at M-Scores Stadion — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Dordrecht are significantly better at M-Scores Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Roda have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Roda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Roda's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Dordrecht at 0.90 PPG versus Roda's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Dordrecht have won 4, Roda 5, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2026, ended 0–3 with Roda winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Dordrecht in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Roda in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dordrecht 65% and Roda 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 58% | Roda 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.42 xG and Roda 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 0.949 / defence 0.923 | Roda attack 0.870 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.651. Data: 40 Dordrecht games / 40 Roda games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 39% | Draw 26% | Roda 35%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Roda 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dordrecht at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dordrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Dordrecht 50% | Roda 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: M-Scores Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 21 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 39% | Draw 26% | Roda 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Dordrecht 1.42 / Roda 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 0.949 / def 0.923 | Roda attack 0.870 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.705 / away 1.651 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Roda xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs Roda kick off?
Dordrecht vs Roda kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 21 August 2026 at M-Scores Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs Roda?
Dordrecht 0 - 1 Roda.
Where is Dordrecht vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at M-Scores Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs Roda part of?
Dordrecht vs Roda is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 39% chance of winning, Roda a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Dordrecht and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Roda?
Record (9 meetings): Dordrecht 4W | Draws 0 | Roda 5W.
What form are Dordrecht and Roda in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Roda (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Dordrecht's attack rating (0.95) and Roda's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Roda's attack versus Dordrecht's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
39%
2.54
26%
3.92
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
2.75
1.33
Roda xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
10%
9.55
8%
11.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.5 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.1 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.33 for Roda, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 40 outings, Dordrecht have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 13W 12D 15L record — W-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Dordrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Roda's form line: 13W 15D 12L from 40 games, 1.35 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Roda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dordrecht on 1.27 PPG, Roda on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Dordrecht have posted 1.30 PPG from 20 outings (7W 5D 8L).
On the road, Roda have gone 9W 7D 4L from 20 away games — 1.70 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Dordrecht are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.48 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Roda in 65%.
Last 40 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Early Season
Roda
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and Roda in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 13W 12D 15L in their last 40 games (1.27 PPG), while Roda have gone 13W 15D 12L in their last 40 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or Roda away?
Roda's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 1.30 PPG; Roda away: 1.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dordrecht and Roda runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 21 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Roda go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Mar 2022, when Roda won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dordrecht's record when hosting Roda specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Dordrecht
0
Draws
6
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Roda?
From 10 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 4, Roda have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2026, when Dordrecht 0-1 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and Roda?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Dordrecht at 60%, Roda at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Dordrecht) and 65% (Roda). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 15% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Dordrecht's games and 70% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dordrecht vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Dordrecht's matches and 65% of Roda's.
Do Dordrecht and Roda tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Roda in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Roda defy the odds to beat Dordrecht 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda beat Dordrecht 0-1 at M-Scores Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.42 xG and Roda 1.33 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Dordrecht fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 0.95 / defence 0.92 against Roda attack 0.87 / defence 0.88, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 39% | Draw 26% | Roda 35%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Roda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 58%, Roda 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Roda's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dordrecht 1.27 PPG, Roda 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Roda win broke the near-deadlock. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward. Roda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.