MVV 1-0 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates MVV at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this MVV vs FC Volendam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
MVV and FC Volendam meet at De Geusselt in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Friday 21 August 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
MVV's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. MVV have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
MVV at De Geusselt this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Volendam have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC Volendam have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Volendam away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Across the last 4 meetings, FC Volendam have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to MVV's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Jan 2025, ended 1–3 with FC Volendam winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. FC Volendam have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
MVV goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
FC Volendam goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — MVV 58% versus FC Volendam 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (MVV 63% | FC Volendam 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects MVV 2.09 xG and FC Volendam 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: MVV attack 0.959 / defence 1.027 | FC Volendam attack 0.932 / defence 1.279. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.651. FC Volendam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.279 — this is suppressing MVV's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 MVV games / 2 FC Volendam games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: MVV 50% | Draw 21% | FC Volendam 29%. Fair-value odds: MVV 2.00 | Draw 4.76 | FC Volendam 3.45. MVV hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.67. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.67 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.09 / 1.58) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates MVV as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.67 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: MVV 70% | FC Volendam 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: MVV vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: De Geusselt • Kick-off: Friday 21 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: MVV 50% | Draw 21% | FC Volendam 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 70% | xG MVV 2.09 / FC Volendam 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: MVV attack 0.959 / def 1.027 | FC Volendam attack 0.932 / def 1.279 | league avg home 1.705 / away 1.651 • Poisson stance: MVV (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
MVV xG
Expected Goals
1.58
FC Volendam xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does MVV vs FC Volendam kick off?
MVV vs FC Volendam kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 21 August 2026 at De Geusselt.
What was the final score in MVV vs FC Volendam?
MVV 1 - 0 FC Volendam.
Where is MVV vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at De Geusselt.
What competition is MVV vs FC Volendam part of?
MVV vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win MVV vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives MVV a 50% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 29% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making MVV the favourite.
Will both teams score in MVV vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both MVV and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will MVV vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and FC Volendam?
Record (4 meetings): MVV 0W | Draws 1 | FC Volendam 3W.
What form are MVV and FC Volendam in?
MVV (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-W-W. FC Volendam (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
MVV's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against FC Volendam's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.09. Flip it around — FC Volendam's attack (0.93x) against MVV's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.58.
The sample (40/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
MVV Win
50%
2.01
21%
4.75
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
MVV xG
Total xG
3.67
1.58
FC Volendam xG
2.01
50%
Home win
4.75
21%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.44
30%
BTTS No
3.29
Clean Sheet
21%
4.85
12%
8.09
Win to Nil
10%
9.77
4%
27.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 8.4 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 6.1 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for MVV vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are MVV and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for MVV and 1.58 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 3.67.
How confident is the prediction model for MVV vs FC Volendam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
MVV's recent record stands at 11W 11D 16L from 38 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for MVV, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Volendam, meanwhile, have gone 10W 8D 20L across 38 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-W-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Volendam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for MVV against 1.00 for FC Volendam. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, MVV have managed 7W 5D 7L from 19 games — 1.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Volendam's away record stands at 3W 3D 13L across 19 trips, a 0.63 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, MVV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
MVV are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.13 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam in 61%.
Last 38 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
MVV
Early Season
FC Volendam
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are MVV and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
MVV have gone 11W 11D 16L in their last 38 games (1.16 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 10W 8D 20L in their last 38 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — MVV at home or FC Volendam away?
MVV's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — MVV at home: 1.37 PPG; FC Volendam away: 0.63 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 21 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Volendam won 5-0 on 27 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, MVV have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against FC Volendam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
MVV
1
Draws
3
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and FC Volendam?
From 5 meetings on record, MVV have won 1, FC Volendam have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did MVV and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2026, when MVV 1-0 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between MVV and FC Volendam?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — MVV 68%, FC Volendam 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for MVV and 58% for FC Volendam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: MVV have failed to score in 26% of games; FC Volendam in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = MVV home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when MVV play FC Volendam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of MVV's games and 47% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is MVV vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of MVV's matches and 58% of FC Volendam's.
Do MVV and FC Volendam tend to score early?
MVV have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as MVV edge out FC Volendam 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
MVV beat FC Volendam 1-0 at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 3, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 2.09 xG and FC Volendam 1.58 xG, a combined 3.67. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. MVV fell 1.1 short of their projected output. FC Volendam landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 0.96 / defence 1.03 against FC Volendam attack 0.93 / defence 1.28, drawn from 40/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it MVV 50% | Draw 21% | FC Volendam 29%, with MVV to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 63%, FC Volendam 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
MVV's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Volendam's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — MVV 1.16 PPG, FC Volendam 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the MVV win broke the near-deadlock. MVV (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line. FC Volendam (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.