Dordrecht 2-1 Roda – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Dordrecht at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dordrecht vs Roda encounter.

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Match Analysis

Dordrecht host Roda at M-Scores Stadion in Eerste Divisie (matchday 26). Kick-off is Friday 14 February 2025 at 19:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Dordrecht — last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: L D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Dordrecht have posted 4W 6D 0L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, Roda have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Roda's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

On current form, Dordrecht have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of Dordrecht's games and 60% of Roda's (from Dordrecht's last 10 home games and Roda's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Dordrecht, 4 for Roda and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Dec 2024, ended Dordrecht 1–0 Roda — a Dordrecht win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Dordrecht in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; of the 32 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 62%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.

Roda in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dordrecht 63% versus Roda 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 57% | Roda 54%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Dordrecht surrender their half-time lead 31% of the time, while Roda have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 39% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.90 xG and Roda 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 1.102 / defence 1.049 | Roda attack 1.115 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.680 / away 1.276. Data: built from Dordrecht's last 63 games and Roda's last 63.

Result probabilities: Dordrecht 47% | Draw 23% | Roda 30%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 2.13 | Draw 4.35 | Roda 3.32. Dordrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.90 / 1.49) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Dordrecht at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dordrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.39 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Dordrecht's last 10 home games and Roda's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Dordrecht 80% (last 10 home games) | Roda 60% (last 10 away games).

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