🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Den Bosch at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Den Bosch vs Telstar fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Den Bosch and Telstar meet at Stadion De Vliert in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Friday 14 February 2025 at 19:00 UTC.

Current Form

Den Bosch's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Stadion De Vliert, Den Bosch have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Telstar have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Telstar, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Telstar have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Den Bosch against 1.30 for Telstar. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

Across the last 7 meetings, Telstar have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Den Bosch's 1, with 2 draws in the mix.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.6 per game from 7 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.

It is worth noting that Telstar have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading & In-Play

Den Bosch — key trading statistics (63 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Telstar — key trading statistics (63 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 46% versus Telstar 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 56% | Telstar 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 2.01 xG and Telstar 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 1.016 / defence 0.882 | Telstar attack 0.843 / defence 1.179. League average goals — home 1.680 / away 1.276. Data: 63 Den Bosch games / 63 Telstar games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Den Bosch 62% | Draw 22% | Telstar 17%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 1.61 | Draw 4.55 | Telstar 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Den Bosch (62%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Den Bosch are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Den Bosch 50% | Telstar 60% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights