Jong AZ 0-0 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong AZ at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jong AZ and FC Eindhoven meet at AFAS Trainingscomplex in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Friday 15 September 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Jong AZ's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Jong AZ have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jong AZ's home record at AFAS Trainingscomplex: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Eindhoven have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. FC Eindhoven have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, FC Eindhoven have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Jong AZ have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, FC Eindhoven in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to FC Eindhoven, who have claimed 3 wins from 4 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Mar 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that FC Eindhoven have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Jong AZ goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
FC Eindhoven goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong AZ 62% versus FC Eindhoven 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong AZ 57% | FC Eindhoven 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 1.46 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 1.029 / defence 0.911 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.936 / defence 0.853. League average goals — home 1.665 / away 1.298. Data: 42 Jong AZ games / 41 FC Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 45% | Draw 26% | FC Eindhoven 29%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | FC Eindhoven 3.45. Jong AZ hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong AZ at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong AZ if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jong AZ 60% | FC Eindhoven 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Friday 15 Sep 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 45% | Draw 26% | FC Eindhoven 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Jong AZ 1.46 / FC Eindhoven 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 1.029 / def 0.911 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.936 / def 0.853 | league avg home 1.665 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.11
FC Eindhoven xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 15 September 2023 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven?
Jong AZ 0 - 0 FC Eindhoven.
Where is Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven part of?
Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 45% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Jong AZ and FC Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and FC Eindhoven?
Record (4 meetings): Jong AZ 0W | Draws 1 | FC Eindhoven 3W.
What form are Jong AZ and FC Eindhoven in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. FC Eindhoven (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Jong AZ's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against FC Eindhoven's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. Flip it around — FC Eindhoven's attack (0.94x) against Jong AZ's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 42/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
45%
2.21
26%
3.83
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
2.57
1.11
FC Eindhoven xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
15%
6.68
7%
15.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.4 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.11 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 42 outings, Jong AZ have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 16W 9D 17L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Jong AZ, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Eindhoven's form line: 18W 11D 13L from 42 games, 1.55 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Jong AZ against 1.55 for FC Eindhoven. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Jong AZ have posted 1.70 PPG from 20 outings (9W 7D 4L).
On the road, FC Eindhoven have gone 6W 6D 8L from 20 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong AZ come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Jong AZ are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.45 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Early Season
FC Eindhoven
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 16W 9D 17L in their last 42 games (1.36 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 18W 11D 13L in their last 42 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or FC Eindhoven away?
Jong AZ's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 1.70 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 19 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
FC Eindhoven have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong AZ have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Eindhoven — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Jong AZ
3
Draws
6
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and FC Eindhoven?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 1, FC Eindhoven have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 19 December 2025, when FC Eindhoven 3-2 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and FC Eindhoven?
FC Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
FC Eindhoven see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 65%, FC Eindhoven 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Jong AZ) and 45% (FC Eindhoven).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play FC Eindhoven?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Jong AZ's games and 55% of FC Eindhoven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong AZ vs FC Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Jong AZ's recent games and 45% of FC Eindhoven's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong AZ and FC Eindhoven tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, FC Eindhoven in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Jong AZ's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 6, as Jong AZ and FC Eindhoven drew 0-0 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 1.46 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.11 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Jong AZ fell 1.5 short of their projected output. FC Eindhoven landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 1.03 / defence 0.91 against FC Eindhoven attack 0.94 / defence 0.85, drawn from 42/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 45% | Draw 26% | FC Eindhoven 29%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 57%, FC Eindhoven 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong AZ's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong AZ 1.36 PPG, FC Eindhoven 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.