Dordrecht 3-0 Emmen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dordrecht at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dordrecht vs Emmen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dordrecht host Emmen at M-Scores Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 28 February 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dordrecht stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dordrecht's form when playing at home: 5W 5D 0L across 10 games at M-Scores Stadion this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Emmen have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Emmen have posted 6W 1D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Dordrecht are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 1.00 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Dordrecht have won 3, Emmen 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2024, ended 2–1 with Dordrecht winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Dordrecht trading profile (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Emmen trading profile (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dordrecht 64% versus Emmen 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 58% | Emmen 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.66 xG and Emmen 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 1.109 / defence 1.018 | Emmen attack 1.131 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.621 / away 1.308. Data: 65 Dordrecht games / 65 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 41% | Draw 25% | Emmen 34%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | Emmen 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.66 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dordrecht are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dordrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.16 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Dordrecht 80% | Emmen 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs Emmen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: M-Scores Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 28 Feb 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 41% | Draw 25% | Emmen 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 64% | xG Dordrecht 1.66 / Emmen 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 1.109 / def 1.018 | Emmen attack 1.131 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.621 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Emmen xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs Emmen kick off?
Dordrecht vs Emmen kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 28 February 2025 at M-Scores Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs Emmen?
Dordrecht 3 - 0 Emmen.
Where is Dordrecht vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at M-Scores Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs Emmen part of?
Dordrecht vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 41% chance of winning, Emmen a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Dordrecht and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Emmen?
Record (7 meetings): Dordrecht 3W | Draws 1 | Emmen 3W.
What form are Dordrecht and Emmen in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Emmen (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Dordrecht's attack rating (1.11) and Emmen's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Emmen's attack versus Dordrecht's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
41%
2.44
25%
4.04
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
3.16
1.50
Emmen xG
2.44
41%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
19%
5.25
Win to Nil
9%
11.01
7%
15.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.4 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.6 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.8 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.50 for Emmen, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs Emmen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 67 outings, Dordrecht have picked up 1.79 PPG on a 32W 24D 11L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Emmen's form line: 30W 11D 26L from 67 games, 1.51 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-W. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dordrecht on 1.79 PPG, Emmen on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Dordrecht have posted 1.97 PPG from 33 outings (17W 14D 2L).
On the road, Emmen have gone 16W 5D 12L from 33 away games — 1.61 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Dordrecht are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.54 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 67 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Blended
Emmen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and Emmen in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 32W 24D 11L in their last 67 games (1.79 PPG), while Emmen have gone 30W 11D 26L in their last 67 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or Emmen away?
Dordrecht's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 1.97 PPG; Emmen away: 1.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Feb 2025, when Dordrecht won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dordrecht's record when hosting Emmen specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Dordrecht
1
Draws
4
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Emmen?
From 10 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 5, Emmen have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Dordrecht 1-0 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and Emmen?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 64%, Emmen 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Dordrecht and 64% for Emmen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play Emmen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Dordrecht's games and 54% of Emmen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dordrecht vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Dordrecht's matches and 64% of Emmen's.
Do Dordrecht and Emmen tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Emmen in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dordrecht run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Emmen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht beat Emmen 3-0 at M-Scores Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.66 xG and Emmen 1.50 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Dordrecht beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Emmen landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 1.11 / defence 1.02 against Emmen attack 1.13 / defence 0.92, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 41% | Draw 25% | Emmen 34%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 58%, Emmen 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Emmen's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dordrecht 1.79 PPG, Emmen 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dordrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Dordrecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Emmen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.