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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model rates Jong Utrecht at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong Utrecht vs FC OSS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 28 as Jong Utrecht welcome FC OSS to Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch. Kick-off is set for Monday 3 March 2025 at 19:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong Utrecht have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Jong Utrecht have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

FC OSS — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.

FC OSS's away record: 0W 5D 5L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Jong Utrecht at 0.80 PPG versus FC OSS's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Jong Utrecht, 4 for FC OSS and 1 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Jong Utrecht trading profile (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

FC OSS trading profile (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Utrecht 52% versus FC OSS 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Utrecht 52% | FC OSS 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 1.24 xG and FC OSS 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 0.758 / defence 1.325 | FC OSS attack 0.607 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.650 / away 1.286. Jong Utrecht's attack strength of 0.758 is below the league average — the 1.24 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 64 Jong Utrecht games / 65 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 40% | Draw 30% | FC OSS 30%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | FC OSS 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Jong Utrecht as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong Utrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Jong Utrecht 60% | FC OSS 30% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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