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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dordrecht and De Graafschap share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dordrecht and De Graafschap finished level at 1-1 at M-Scores Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.49 xG and De Graafschap 1.18 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 0.99 / defence 0.83 against De Graafschap attack 1.07 / defence 0.88, drawn from 45/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 44% | Draw 26% | De Graafschap 30%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 59%, De Graafschap 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dordrecht's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

De Graafschap's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Dordrecht 1.78 PPG, De Graafschap 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.41 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights