🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Dordrecht at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dordrecht vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Dordrecht and De Graafschap meet at M-Scores Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Friday 26 September 2025 at 19:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Dordrecht have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Dordrecht have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Dordrecht at M-Scores Stadion this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at M-Scores Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Dordrecht are significantly better at M-Scores Stadion than their overall form suggests.

De Graafschap (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

De Graafschap's away record: 4W 0D 6L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Dordrecht lead 2W to 2W over the last 8 encounters, with 4 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2025, ended 2–0 with Dordrecht winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Dordrecht — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games).

De Graafschap — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dordrecht 46% versus De Graafschap 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 59% | De Graafschap 61%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.49 xG and De Graafschap 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 0.986 / defence 0.833 | De Graafschap attack 1.067 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.719 / away 1.331. Data: 45 Dordrecht games / 44 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Dordrecht 44% | Draw 26% | De Graafschap 30%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | De Graafschap 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Dordrecht are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dordrecht if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Dordrecht 40% | De Graafschap 50%.

The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights