Dordrecht 1-0 ADO Den Haag – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours ADO Den Haag (59%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Dordrecht face ADO Den Haag.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Dordrecht welcome ADO Den Haag to M-Scores Stadion in Eerste Divisie (matchday 36). Kick-off is Sunday 12 April 2026 at 12:15 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Dordrecht stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Dordrecht have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
ADO Den Haag — last 10 games: 9W 0D 1L — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, ADO Den Haag have posted 7W 0D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.10 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. ADO Den Haag's 2.70 PPG return is 1.70 points per game ahead of Dordrecht's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Despite the home advantage, ADO Den Haag have the better record in our head-to-head data — 4 wins from 9 H2H matches against 1 for Dordrecht.
The 9 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.4 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 17 Oct 2025, ended Dordrecht 0–3 ADO Den Haag — a ADO Den Haag win.
The H2H data backs the away side. ADO Den Haag have won 4 of 9 H2H matches, and at 3.4 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Dordrecht in-play and half-time data (last 75 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
ADO Den Haag in-play and half-time data (last 75 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dordrecht 55% versus ADO Den Haag 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 59% | ADO Den Haag 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 0.93 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 0.823 / defence 1.063 | ADO Den Haag attack 1.167 / defence 0.695. League average goals — home 1.622 / away 1.483. ADO Den Haag bring a tight defence (rating 0.695, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Dordrecht's projected output down. Data: built from Dordrecht's last 73 games and ADO Den Haag's last 73.
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 19% | Draw 23% | ADO Den Haag 59%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 5.37 | Draw 4.43 | ADO Den Haag 1.70. The model has a clear lean to ADO Den Haag (59%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is ADO Den Haag at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Dordrecht's last 10 home games and ADO Den Haag's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Dordrecht 60% (last 10 home games) | ADO Den Haag 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs ADO Den Haag | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 36 | Venue: M-Scores Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 12 April 2026 at 12:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 19% | Draw 23% | ADO Den Haag 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Dordrecht 0.93 / ADO Den Haag 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 0.823 / def 1.063 | ADO Den Haag attack 1.167 / def 0.695 | league avg home 1.622 / away 1.483 • Poisson stance: ADO Den Haag (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.84
ADO Den Haag xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dordrecht vs ADO Den Haag FAQs
What time does Dordrecht vs ADO Den Haag kick off?
Dordrecht vs ADO Den Haag kicked off at 12:15 UK time on Sunday 12 April 2026 at M-Scores Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs ADO Den Haag?
Dordrecht 1 - 0 ADO Den Haag.
Where is Dordrecht vs ADO Den Haag being played?
The match is being played at M-Scores Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs ADO Den Haag part of?
Dordrecht vs ADO Den Haag is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 36) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs ADO Den Haag?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 19% chance of winning, ADO Den Haag a 59% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making ADO Den Haag the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs ADO Den Haag?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Dordrecht and ADO Den Haag will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Dordrecht vs ADO Den Haag have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Dordrecht's attack at 0.82x the league average against ADO Den Haag's defence at 0.69x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, ADO Den Haag's attack versus Dordrecht's defence, projects 1.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Dordrecht's last 73 games and ADO Den Haag's last 73 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (10.6%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
ADO Den Haag Win
19%
5.37
23%
4.43
59%
1.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
0 – 2
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
2.77
1.84
ADO Den Haag xG
5.37
19%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
1.70
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
16%
6.29
40%
2.53
Win to Nil
3%
33.78
23%
4.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 11.6 | 10.6 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dordrecht vs ADO Den Haag Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs ADO Den Haag?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and ADO Den Haag expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.84 for ADO Den Haag, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs ADO Den Haag?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dordrecht come into this having played 75 games, going 32W 19D 24L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-D.
On the other side, ADO Den Haag sit at 2.04 PPG from 75 outings (47W 12D 16L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five.
ADO Den Haag carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Dordrecht — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Dordrecht's home form reads 19W 11D 7L across their last 37 home games, a 1.84 PPG return.
Away from home, ADO Den Haag have taken 1.92 points per game from their last 37 away games (21W 8D 8L).
The Goals Picture
Dordrecht are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; ADO Den Haag are on 2.01 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 75 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Current Season
ADO Den Haag
Current Season
Dordrecht (Home) vs ADO Den Haag (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dordrecht
Current Season
ADO Den Haag
Current Season
❓ Dordrecht vs ADO Den Haag Form FAQs
What form are Dordrecht and ADO Den Haag in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 32W 19D 24L in their last 75 games (1.53 PPG), while ADO Den Haag have gone 47W 12D 16L in their last 75 (2.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or ADO Den Haag away?
ADO Den Haag's away record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 1.84 PPG; ADO Den Haag away: 1.92 PPG.
Have Dordrecht or ADO Den Haag been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dordrecht have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, ADO Den Haag in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2021. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was on 12 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Nov 2021, when ADO Den Haag won ADO Den Haag 5-1 Dordrecht.
Dordrecht's record when hosting ADO Den Haag specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Dordrecht
4
Draws
4
ADO Den Haag
Recent Meetings
❓ Dordrecht vs ADO Den Haag H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and ADO Den Haag?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Dordrecht have won 2, ADO Den Haag have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and ADO Den Haag last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 April 2026: Dordrecht 1-0 ADO Den Haag.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and ADO Den Haag?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 49% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 57%, ADO Den Haag 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Dordrecht and 60% for ADO Den Haag. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / ADO Den Haag away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dordrecht vs ADO Den Haag Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dordrecht and ADO Den Haag matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Dordrecht's games and 57% of ADO Den Haag's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Dordrecht and ADO Den Haag matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Dordrecht's matches and 60% of ADO Den Haag's.
Do Dordrecht and ADO Den Haag matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Dordrecht's recent matches and 81% of ADO Den Haag's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dordrecht defy the odds to beat ADO Den Haag 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht beat ADO Den Haag 1-0 at M-Scores Stadion, Regular Season - 36, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 0.93 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.84 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. ADO Den Haag landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 0.82 / defence 1.06 against ADO Den Haag attack 1.17 / defence 0.69, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 19% | Draw 23% | ADO Den Haag 59%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Dordrecht win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 59%, ADO Den Haag 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.53. Form was overturned, with Dordrecht winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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