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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Jong AZ defy the odds to beat Den Bosch 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jong AZ beat Den Bosch 2-3 at De Vliert, Regular Season - 8, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 2.30 xG and Jong AZ 1.36 xG, a combined 3.67. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Jong AZ outscored their 1.36 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 1.28 / defence 1.07 against Jong AZ attack 0.95 / defence 1.04, drawn from 44/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 58% | Draw 20% | Jong AZ 22%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Jong AZ win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 56%, Jong AZ 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Den Bosch's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Jong AZ's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Den Bosch 1.47 PPG, Jong AZ 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong AZ win broke the near-deadlock. Den Bosch (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong AZ (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights