Den Bosch 2-3 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Den Bosch at 58% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Den Bosch vs Jong AZ encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Jong AZ travel to De Vliert to take on Den Bosch. The game is scheduled for Friday 26 September 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Den Bosch stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Den Bosch have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Den Bosch at De Vliert this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at De Vliert.
Jong AZ — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Jong AZ have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Jong AZ have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Den Bosch 1.50 PPG, Jong AZ 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Den Bosch, 1 for Jong AZ and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Den Bosch trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Jong AZ trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 47% versus Jong AZ 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 56% | Jong AZ 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 2.30 xG and Jong AZ 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 1.283 / defence 1.073 | Jong AZ attack 0.955 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.719 / away 1.331. Den Bosch carry an above-average attack strength of 1.283 — their λ of 2.30 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 44 Den Bosch games / 45 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 58% | Draw 20% | Jong AZ 22%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 1.72 | Draw 5.00 | Jong AZ 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Den Bosch (58%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.67. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.67 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.30 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Den Bosch as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.67 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Den Bosch 40% | Jong AZ 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 26 Sep 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 58% | Draw 20% | Jong AZ 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 67% | xG Den Bosch 2.30 / Jong AZ 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 1.283 / def 1.073 | Jong AZ attack 0.955 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.719 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.30
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Jong AZ xG
67%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs Jong AZ kick off?
Den Bosch vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 26 September 2025 at De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs Jong AZ?
Den Bosch 2 - 3 Jong AZ.
Where is Den Bosch vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs Jong AZ part of?
Den Bosch vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 58% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 22% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Den Bosch and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Jong AZ?
Record (8 meetings): Den Bosch 3W | Draws 4 | Jong AZ 1W.
What form are Den Bosch and Jong AZ in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Jong AZ (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Den Bosch's attack rating (1.28) and Jong AZ's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 2.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jong AZ's attack versus Den Bosch's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.1%), 3-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
58%
1.71
20%
5.10
22%
4.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
3 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.30
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
3.67
1.36
Jong AZ xG
1.71
58%
Home win
5.10
20%
Draw
4.56
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.03
Clean Sheet
26%
3.91
10%
9.98
Win to Nil
15%
6.69
2%
45.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 8.0 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.2 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 7.1 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 2.30 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.36 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 3.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs Jong AZ?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Den Bosch's recent record stands at 18W 12D 15L from 45 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Den Bosch, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Jong AZ, meanwhile, have gone 15W 11D 19L across 45 games — 1.24 PPG, with L-L-W-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Jong AZ, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Den Bosch on 1.47 PPG, Jong AZ on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Den Bosch have managed 11W 7D 4L from 22 games — 1.82 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong AZ's away record stands at 8W 5D 9L across 22 trips, a 1.32 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Den Bosch come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Den Bosch are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.73 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ in 67%.
Defensively: Den Bosch have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Early Season
Jong AZ
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 18W 12D 15L in their last 45 games (1.47 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 15W 11D 19L in their last 45 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or Jong AZ away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.82 PPG; Jong AZ away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Den Bosch or Jong AZ been keeping clean sheets recently?
Den Bosch have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Jong AZ in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Den Bosch and Jong AZ runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 23 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Aug 2024, when Den Bosch won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Den Bosch's record when hosting Jong AZ specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Den Bosch
5
Draws
2
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Jong AZ?
From 10 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 3, Jong AZ have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2026, when Jong AZ 2-2 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and Jong AZ?
Den Bosch have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 41%, Jong AZ 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Den Bosch) and 59% (Jong AZ).
On the defensive side: Den Bosch keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play Jong AZ?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Den Bosch's recent matches and 59% of Jong AZ's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Den Bosch vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Den Bosch's recent games and 59% of Jong AZ's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Den Bosch and Jong AZ tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Jong AZ defy the odds to beat Den Bosch 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong AZ beat Den Bosch 2-3 at De Vliert, Regular Season - 8, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 2.30 xG and Jong AZ 1.36 xG, a combined 3.67. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Jong AZ outscored their 1.36 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 1.28 / defence 1.07 against Jong AZ attack 0.95 / defence 1.04, drawn from 44/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 58% | Draw 20% | Jong AZ 22%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Jong AZ win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 56%, Jong AZ 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Jong AZ's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Den Bosch 1.47 PPG, Jong AZ 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong AZ win broke the near-deadlock. Den Bosch (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong AZ (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.