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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Den Bosch cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Jong Ajax.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Den Bosch beat Jong Ajax 3-1 at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 30, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.52 xG and Jong Ajax 0.88 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Den Bosch beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.86 / defence 0.92 against Jong Ajax attack 0.75 / defence 1.08, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 52% | Draw 26% | Jong Ajax 22%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 54%, Jong Ajax 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Den Bosch's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Jong Ajax's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Den Bosch 1.12 PPG, Jong Ajax 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Den Bosch win broke the near-deadlock. Den Bosch (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights