Den Bosch 3-1 Jong Ajax – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Den Bosch at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion De Vliert plays host to Den Bosch versus Jong Ajax in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Sunday 16 March 2025 at 15:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Den Bosch have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Den Bosch's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Stadion De Vliert this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Jong Ajax's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Jong Ajax away from home this season: 1W 0D 9L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Den Bosch 3W, Jong Ajax 2W, 2D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.7 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2024, ended 2–1 with Den Bosch winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Den Bosch half-time and goal-timing data (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Jong Ajax half-time and goal-timing data (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 46% versus Jong Ajax 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 54% | Jong Ajax 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.52 xG and Jong Ajax 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.857 / defence 0.920 | Jong Ajax attack 0.754 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.644 / away 1.274. Data: 68 Den Bosch games / 68 Jong Ajax games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 52% | Draw 26% | Jong Ajax 22%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Jong Ajax 4.55. Den Bosch hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Den Bosch as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Den Bosch if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Den Bosch 40% | Jong Ajax 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Mar 2025, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 52% | Draw 26% | Jong Ajax 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 46% | xG Den Bosch 1.52 / Jong Ajax 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 0.857 / def 0.920 | Jong Ajax attack 0.754 / def 1.081 | league avg home 1.644 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Jong Ajax xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax kick off?
Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 16 March 2025 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax?
Den Bosch 3 - 1 Jong Ajax.
Where is Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax part of?
Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 52% chance of winning, Jong Ajax a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Den Bosch and Jong Ajax will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Jong Ajax?
Record (7 meetings): Den Bosch 3W | Draws 2 | Jong Ajax 2W.
What form are Den Bosch and Jong Ajax in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Jong Ajax (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Den Bosch's attack at 0.86x the league average against Jong Ajax's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jong Ajax's attack (0.75x) against Den Bosch's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
52%
1.91
26%
3.86
22%
4.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
2.41
0.88
Jong Ajax xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
4.58
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
22%
4.59
Win to Nil
22%
4.63
5%
21.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 12.1 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.2 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and Jong Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Den Bosch and 0.88 for Jong Ajax, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 68 outings, Den Bosch have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 20W 16D 32L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Jong Ajax's form line: 18W 17D 33L from 68 games, 1.04 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Den Bosch against 1.04 for Jong Ajax. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Den Bosch have posted 1.18 PPG from 34 outings (10W 10D 14L).
On the road, Jong Ajax have gone 5W 8D 21L from 34 away games — 0.68 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Den Bosch come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Den Bosch are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Jong Ajax are on 1.29 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Current Season
Jong Ajax
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and Jong Ajax in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 20W 16D 32L in their last 68 games (1.12 PPG), while Jong Ajax have gone 18W 17D 33L in their last 68 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or Jong Ajax away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.18 PPG; Jong Ajax away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Den Bosch have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jong Ajax — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Den Bosch
2
Draws
3
Jong Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Jong Ajax?
From 10 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 5, Jong Ajax have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and Jong Ajax last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Jong Ajax 3-2 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and Jong Ajax?
Den Bosch have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 53%, Jong Ajax 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Den Bosch and 71% for Jong Ajax. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / Jong Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play Jong Ajax?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Den Bosch's games and 68% of Jong Ajax's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Den Bosch's matches and 71% of Jong Ajax's.
Do Den Bosch and Jong Ajax tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Jong Ajax in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Den Bosch cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Jong Ajax.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Den Bosch beat Jong Ajax 3-1 at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 30, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.52 xG and Jong Ajax 0.88 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Den Bosch beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.86 / defence 0.92 against Jong Ajax attack 0.75 / defence 1.08, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 52% | Draw 26% | Jong Ajax 22%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 54%, Jong Ajax 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Jong Ajax's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Den Bosch 1.12 PPG, Jong Ajax 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Den Bosch win broke the near-deadlock. Den Bosch (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.