Den Bosch 1-3 ADO Den Haag – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours ADO Den Haag (44%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Den Bosch face ADO Den Haag.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Den Bosch welcome ADO Den Haag to De Vliert in Eerste Divisie (matchday 38). Kick-off is Friday 24 April 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Den Bosch — last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Den Bosch have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, ADO Den Haag have recorded 8W 0D 2L — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
ADO Den Haag's away record over their last 10 away games: 7W 0D 3L (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. ADO Den Haag's 2.40 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Den Bosch's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Despite the home advantage, ADO Den Haag have the better record in our head-to-head data — 6 wins from 9 H2H matches against 2 for Den Bosch.
The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Oct 2025, ended Den Bosch 1–2 ADO Den Haag — a ADO Den Haag win.
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 6 wins from 9 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Data
Den Bosch trading profile (last 77 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
ADO Den Haag trading profile (last 77 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 60% versus ADO Den Haag 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 58% | ADO Den Haag 64%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Den Bosch surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while ADO Den Haag have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.06 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.929 / defence 0.884 | ADO Den Haag attack 1.081 / defence 0.697. League average goals — home 1.641 / away 1.448. ADO Den Haag bring a tight defence (rating 0.697, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Den Bosch's projected output down. Data: built from Den Bosch's last 75 games and ADO Den Haag's last 75.
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 29% | Draw 27% | ADO Den Haag 44%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 3.46 | Draw 3.71 | ADO Den Haag 2.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is ADO Den Haag at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on ADO Den Haag offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Den Bosch 70% (last 10 home games) | ADO Den Haag 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs ADO Den Haag | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 38 | Venue: De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 24 April 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 29% | Draw 27% | ADO Den Haag 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Den Bosch 1.06 / ADO Den Haag 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 0.929 / def 0.884 | ADO Den Haag attack 1.081 / def 0.697 | league avg home 1.641 / away 1.448 • Poisson stance: ADO Den Haag (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.38
ADO Den Haag xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Den Bosch vs ADO Den Haag FAQs
What time does Den Bosch vs ADO Den Haag kick off?
Den Bosch vs ADO Den Haag kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 24 April 2026 at De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs ADO Den Haag?
Den Bosch 1 - 3 ADO Den Haag.
Where is Den Bosch vs ADO Den Haag being played?
The match is being played at De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs ADO Den Haag part of?
Den Bosch vs ADO Den Haag is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 38) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs ADO Den Haag?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 29% chance of winning, ADO Den Haag a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making ADO Den Haag the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs ADO Den Haag?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Den Bosch and ADO Den Haag will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Den Bosch vs ADO Den Haag have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Den Bosch's attack at 0.93x the league average against ADO Den Haag's defence at 0.70x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, ADO Den Haag's attack versus Den Bosch's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Den Bosch's last 75 games and ADO Den Haag's last 75 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.3%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
ADO Den Haag Win
29%
3.46
27%
3.71
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
2.45
1.38
ADO Den Haag xG
3.46
29%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
35%
2.90
Win to Nil
7%
13.80
15%
6.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 12.0 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.8 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Den Bosch vs ADO Den Haag Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs ADO Den Haag?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and ADO Den Haag expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.38 for ADO Den Haag, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs ADO Den Haag?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Den Bosch's recent record stands at 29W 21D 27L from 77 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-D in the last five.
ADO Den Haag, meanwhile, have gone 48W 12D 17L across 77 games — 2.03 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours ADO Den Haag by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Den Bosch heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Den Bosch have managed 17W 13D 8L from their last 38 home games — 1.68 PPG in front of their own supporters.
ADO Den Haag's away record stands at 21W 8D 9L across their last 38 away games, a 1.87 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Den Bosch are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; ADO Den Haag are on 2.03 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 77 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Current Season
ADO Den Haag
Current Season
Den Bosch (Home) vs ADO Den Haag (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Den Bosch
Current Season
ADO Den Haag
Current Season
❓ Den Bosch vs ADO Den Haag Form FAQs
What form are Den Bosch and ADO Den Haag in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 29W 21D 27L in their last 77 games (1.40 PPG), while ADO Den Haag have gone 48W 12D 17L in their last 77 (2.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or ADO Den Haag away?
ADO Den Haag's away record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.68 PPG; ADO Den Haag away: 1.87 PPG.
Have Den Bosch or ADO Den Haag been keeping clean sheets recently?
Den Bosch have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, ADO Den Haag in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was on 24 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: ADO Den Haag have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 Feb 2024, when ADO Den Haag won ADO Den Haag 3-0 Den Bosch.
Den Bosch's record when hosting ADO Den Haag specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Den Bosch
1
Draws
7
ADO Den Haag
Recent Meetings
❓ Den Bosch vs ADO Den Haag H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and ADO Den Haag?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Den Bosch have won 2, ADO Den Haag have won 7, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and ADO Den Haag last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 April 2026: Den Bosch 1-3 ADO Den Haag.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and ADO Den Haag?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 55%, ADO Den Haag 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Den Bosch) and 58% (ADO Den Haag).
On the defensive side: Den Bosch keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / ADO Den Haag away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Den Bosch vs ADO Den Haag Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Den Bosch and ADO Den Haag matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Den Bosch's games and 55% of ADO Den Haag's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Den Bosch and ADO Den Haag matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Den Bosch's recent games and 58% of ADO Den Haag's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Den Bosch and ADO Den Haag matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Den Bosch's recent matches and 79% of ADO Den Haag's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
ADO Den Haag cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Den Bosch.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ADO Den Haag beat Den Bosch 1-3 at De Vliert, Regular Season - 38, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.06 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.38 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. ADO Den Haag outscored their 1.38 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.93 / defence 0.88 against ADO Den Haag attack 1.08 / defence 0.70, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 29% | Draw 27% | ADO Den Haag 44%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 58%, ADO Den Haag 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (77 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (77 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.40. Form held, and they took the win. Den Bosch (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.97 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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