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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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De Graafschap and Willem II share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

De Graafschap and Willem II finished level at 1-1 at De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 5, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 2.07 xG and Willem II 1.41 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. De Graafschap fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.00 / defence 1.20 against Willem II attack 0.96 / defence 1.25, drawn from 42/5 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 53% | Draw 21% | Willem II 26%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 60%, Willem II 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

De Graafschap's trading profile (43 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Willem II's trading profile (43 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward. Willem II (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights