🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs Willem II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

De Graafschap and Willem II meet at De Vijverberg in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Friday 12 September 2025 at 19:00 UTC.

Current Form

De Graafschap's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, De Graafschap have posted 6W 2D 2L at De Vijverberg — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — De Graafschap are significantly better at De Vijverberg than their overall form suggests.

Willem II (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Willem II have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Willem II have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H History

Willem II hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 4 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Feb 2024, ended 0–2 with Willem II winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Willem II have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading & In-Play

De Graafschap — key trading statistics (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

Willem II — key trading statistics (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 58% versus Willem II 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 60% | Willem II 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 2.07 xG and Willem II 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.004 / defence 1.199 | Willem II attack 0.961 / defence 1.246. League average goals — home 1.655 / away 1.221. Willem II bring a strong defensive rating of 1.246 — this is suppressing De Graafschap's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 De Graafschap games / 5 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: De Graafschap 53% | Draw 21% | Willem II 26%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 1.89 | Draw 4.76 | Willem II 3.85. De Graafschap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.07 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is De Graafschap at 53% — moderate model lean.

Poisson projects 3.48 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 50% | Willem II 70% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights