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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Eerste Divisie · Regular Season - 5

Kick-off

Fri 12 Sep 2025

19:00

Venue

De Vijverberg

Competition

Eerste Divisie

Netherlands

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

De Graafschap Win

53%

De Graafschap

1.89

21%

Draw

4.72

26%

Willem II

3.85

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

2 – 1

9.3%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

9.0%

Draw

2 – 0

6.6%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

2.07

De Graafschap xG

Total xG

3.48

1.41

Willem II xG

53%
21%
26%
De GraafschapDrawWillem II

1.89

53%

Home win

4.72

21%

Draw

3.85

26%

Away win

Goals Markets

86%

Over 1.5

1.16

14%

Under 1.5

7.14

67%

Over 2.5

1.49

33%

Under 2.5

3.03

46%

Over 3.5

2.17

54%

Under 3.5

1.85

27%

Over 4.5

3.70

73%

Under 4.5

1.37

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

66%

BTTS Yes

1.52

34%

BTTS No

2.94

Clean Sheet

24%

De Graafschap

4.08

13%

Willem II

7.92

Win to Nil

13%

De Graafschap

7.73

3%

Willem II

30.53

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 3.1 4.3 3.1 1.4 0.5 0.1
1 6.4 9.0 6.3 3.0 1.0 0.3
2 6.6 9.3 6.6 3.1 1.1 0.3
3 4.6 6.4 4.5 2.1 0.7 0.2
4 2.4 3.3 2.3 1.1 0.4 0.1
5 1.0 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.2

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 2.070
λ Away (xG) 1.407
Total xG 3.477
League avg home goals 1.655
League avg away goals 1.221
De Graafschap attack strength 1.004
De Graafschap defence strength 1.199
Willem II attack strength 0.961
Willem II defence strength 1.246
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 42 / 5