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Waalwijk cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over De Graafschap.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Waalwijk beat De Graafschap 2-4 at De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 24, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.79 xG and Waalwijk 1.39 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Waalwijk outscored their 1.39 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.09 / defence 1.03 against Waalwijk attack 0.88 / defence 0.95, drawn from 60/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 46% | Draw 24% | Waalwijk 30%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Waalwijk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 61%, Waalwijk 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

De Graafschap's trading profile (56 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Waalwijk's trading profile (56 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 0.98. Form was overturned, with Waalwijk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. De Graafschap (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Waalwijk (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights