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Shock result as Roda defy the odds to beat De Graafschap 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Roda beat De Graafschap 2-3 at De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 20, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.71 xG and Roda 1.20 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Roda outscored their 1.20 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.11 / defence 0.98 against Roda attack 0.85 / defence 0.90, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 49% | Draw 25% | Roda 26%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Roda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 61%, Roda 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

De Graafschap's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Roda's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.70 PPG, Roda 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Roda win broke the near-deadlock. De Graafschap (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Roda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights