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Poisson rates De Graafschap at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this De Graafschap vs Roda encounter.

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Match Analysis

De Graafschap host Roda at De Vijverberg in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 12 December 2025 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Guide

De Graafschap — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.

De Graafschap at De Vijverberg this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Roda stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Roda's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

On current form, De Graafschap have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, De Graafschap have won 3, Roda 4, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with Roda winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

De Graafschap in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.

Roda in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 65% and Roda 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 61% | Roda 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.71 xG and Roda 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.112 / defence 0.980 | Roda attack 0.848 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.713 / away 1.444. Data: 57 De Graafschap games / 57 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: De Graafschap 49% | Draw 25% | Roda 26%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Roda 3.85. De Graafschap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is De Graafschap at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on De Graafschap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 70% | Roda 70% BTTS from recent games.

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