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De Graafschap cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Roda.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

De Graafschap beat Roda 2-0 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 33, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 2.20 xG and Roda 1.08 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Roda landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.25 / defence 0.80 against Roda attack 1.04 / defence 1.07, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 62% | Draw 20% | Roda 17%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 67%, Roda 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

De Graafschap's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Roda's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.62 PPG, Roda 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the De Graafschap win broke the near-deadlock. De Graafschap (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Roda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights