De Graafschap 2-0 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
De Graafschap host Roda at Stadion De Vijverberg in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 6 April 2025 at 15:45 UTC.
Form Guide
De Graafschap — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
De Graafschap at Stadion De Vijverberg this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — De Graafschap are significantly better at Stadion De Vijverberg than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Roda stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Roda's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, De Graafschap have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, De Graafschap have won 2, Roda 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2024, ended 4–1 with De Graafschap winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
De Graafschap in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Roda in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 62% versus Roda 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 67% | Roda 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 2.20 xG and Roda 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.246 / defence 0.802 | Roda attack 1.045 / defence 1.071. League average goals — home 1.647 / away 1.290. Data: 70 De Graafschap games / 70 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 62% | Draw 20% | Roda 17%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 1.61 | Draw 5.00 | Roda 5.88. The model has a clear lean to De Graafschap (62%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is De Graafschap at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.28 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 50% | Roda 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Apr 2025, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 62% | Draw 20% | Roda 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 59% | xG De Graafschap 2.20 / Roda 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.246 / def 0.802 | Roda attack 1.045 / def 1.071 | league avg home 1.647 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.20
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Roda xG
59%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Roda kick off?
De Graafschap vs Roda kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 6 April 2025 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Roda?
De Graafschap 2 - 0 Roda.
Where is De Graafschap vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Roda part of?
De Graafschap vs Roda is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 62% chance of winning, Roda a 17% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both De Graafschap and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Roda?
Record (7 meetings): De Graafschap 2W | Draws 2 | Roda 3W.
What form are De Graafschap and Roda in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Roda (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
De Graafschap's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against Roda's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.20. The same calculation in reverse, Roda's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
62%
1.60
20%
4.91
17%
5.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.20
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
3.28
1.08
Roda xG
1.60
62%
Home win
4.91
20%
Draw
5.80
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
11%
9.01
Win to Nil
21%
4.73
2%
52.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.3 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 2.20 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.08 for Roda, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Roda?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
De Graafschap come into this having played 72 games, going 34W 15D 23L for 1.62 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-L.
On the other side, Roda sit at 1.67 PPG from 72 outings (33W 21D 18L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: De Graafschap on 1.62 PPG, Roda on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
De Graafschap's home form reads 22W 6D 8L across 36 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Roda have taken 1.28 points per game from 36 outings (11W 13D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
De Graafschap are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.60 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 72 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Current Season
Roda
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Roda in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 34W 15D 23L in their last 72 games (1.62 PPG), while Roda have gone 33W 21D 18L in their last 72 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Roda away?
De Graafschap's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 2.00 PPG; Roda away: 1.28 PPG.
Have De Graafschap or Roda been keeping clean sheets recently?
De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Roda in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 12 December 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Roda go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Aug 2021, when Roda won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
De Graafschap's record when hosting Roda specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
De Graafschap
2
Draws
5
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Roda?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 3, Roda have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 12 December 2025, when De Graafschap 2-3 Roda.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Roda?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 58%, Roda 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (De Graafschap) and 50% (Roda). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of De Graafschap's games and 64% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of De Graafschap's matches and 50% of Roda's.
Do De Graafschap and Roda tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Roda in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
De Graafschap cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Roda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat Roda 2-0 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 33, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 2.20 xG and Roda 1.08 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Roda landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.25 / defence 0.80 against Roda attack 1.04 / defence 1.07, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 62% | Draw 20% | Roda 17%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 67%, Roda 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Roda's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.62 PPG, Roda 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the De Graafschap win broke the near-deadlock. De Graafschap (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Roda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.