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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

De Graafschap host Roda at Stadion De Vijverberg in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 6 April 2025 at 15:45 UTC.

Form Guide

De Graafschap — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

De Graafschap at Stadion De Vijverberg this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — De Graafschap are significantly better at Stadion De Vijverberg than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Roda stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

Roda's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

On current form, De Graafschap have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, De Graafschap have won 2, Roda 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2024, ended 4–1 with De Graafschap winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

De Graafschap in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

Roda in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 62% versus Roda 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 67% | Roda 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 2.20 xG and Roda 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.246 / defence 0.802 | Roda attack 1.045 / defence 1.071. League average goals — home 1.647 / away 1.290. Data: 70 De Graafschap games / 70 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: De Graafschap 62% | Draw 20% | Roda 17%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 1.61 | Draw 5.00 | Roda 5.88. The model has a clear lean to De Graafschap (62%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is De Graafschap at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.28 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 50% | Roda 90% BTTS from recent games.

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