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Shock result as MVV defy the odds to beat De Graafschap 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

MVV beat De Graafschap 0-1 at De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 3, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 2.43 xG and MVV 0.92 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. De Graafschap fell 2.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.17 / defence 0.98 against MVV attack 0.74 / defence 1.22, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 70% | Draw 17% | MVV 12%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a MVV win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 60%, MVV 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

De Graafschap's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

MVV's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with MVV winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward. MVV (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights