🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours De Graafschap (70%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as De Graafschap face MVV.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees MVV travel to De Vijverberg to take on De Graafschap. The game is scheduled for Friday 22 August 2025, 19:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

De Graafschap's home record at De Vijverberg: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at De Vijverberg. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — De Graafschap are significantly better at De Vijverberg than their overall form suggests.

MVV — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. MVV have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

MVV's away record: 0W 2D 8L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

De Graafschap are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

Head to Head

The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of De Graafschap: 4 wins from 8 previous clashes against 1 for MVV, with 3 draws across those contests.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Mar 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

The historical record gives De Graafschap a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

In-Play Data

De Graafschap trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

MVV trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 58% versus MVV 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 60% | MVV 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 2.43 xG and MVV 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.171 / defence 0.978 | MVV attack 0.740 / defence 1.216. League average goals — home 1.704 / away 1.275. MVV bring a strong defensive rating of 1.216 — this is suppressing De Graafschap's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 De Graafschap games / 40 MVV games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.

Result probabilities: De Graafschap 70% | Draw 17% | MVV 12%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 1.43 | Draw 5.88 | MVV 8.33. The model has a clear lean to De Graafschap (70%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Form averages suggest only ~1.7 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 65% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.

Poisson rates De Graafschap as the most likely outcome at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.35 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: De Graafschap 50% | MVV 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights