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Prediction vindicated as De Graafschap edge out Jong Utrecht 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

De Graafschap beat Jong Utrecht 1-0 at De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 28, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 2.07 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.74 xG, a combined 3.81. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. De Graafschap fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Jong Utrecht landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.12 / defence 1.09 against Jong Utrecht attack 1.08 / defence 1.07, drawn from 65/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 45% | Draw 22% | Jong Utrecht 32%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 61%, Jong Utrecht 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

De Graafschap's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Jong Utrecht's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.88. Form held, and they took the win. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.16 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.23 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights