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Dominant De Graafschap run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Jong AZ.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

De Graafschap beat Jong AZ 5-0 at De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 35, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.92 xG and Jong AZ 2.20 xG, a combined 4.11. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. De Graafschap beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jong AZ landed 2.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.11 / defence 1.10 against Jong AZ attack 1.31 / defence 1.11, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 35% | Draw 20% | Jong AZ 45%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual De Graafschap win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 59% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 62%, Jong AZ 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

De Graafschap's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Jong AZ's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.24. Form held, and they took the win. De Graafschap (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights