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Dominant De Graafschap run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Jong Ajax.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

De Graafschap beat Jong Ajax 4-0 at De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 26, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 2.04 xG and Jong Ajax 1.61 xG, a combined 3.65. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. De Graafschap beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jong Ajax landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.01 / defence 1.16 against Jong Ajax attack 0.91 / defence 1.14, drawn from 63/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 46% | Draw 24% | Jong Ajax 30%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 60%, Jong Ajax 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

De Graafschap's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Jong Ajax's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 0.89. That form edge translated into the three points. De Graafschap (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights