🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

De Graafschap cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Helmond Sport.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

De Graafschap beat Helmond Sport 3-1 at De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 16, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.61 xG and Helmond Sport 1.23 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. De Graafschap beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.02 / defence 1.07 against Helmond Sport attack 0.79 / defence 0.92, drawn from 52/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 46% | Draw 25% | Helmond Sport 29%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 60%, Helmond Sport 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

De Graafschap's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Helmond Sport's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.60 PPG, Helmond Sport 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the De Graafschap win broke the near-deadlock. De Graafschap (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.12 average — above their attacking norm. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights