🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates De Graafschap at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

De Graafschap host Helmond Sport at De Vijverberg in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 21 November 2025 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Guide

De Graafschap — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.

De Graafschap's home record at De Vijverberg: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Helmond Sport have recorded 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Helmond Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Helmond Sport's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: De Graafschap 1.90 PPG, Helmond Sport 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 5 wins for De Graafschap, 3 for Helmond Sport and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2025, ended 4–1 with De Graafschap winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

De Graafschap trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.

Helmond Sport trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 64% and Helmond Sport 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 60% | Helmond Sport 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.61 xG and Helmond Sport 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.023 / defence 1.071 | Helmond Sport attack 0.785 / defence 0.917. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.468. Data: 52 De Graafschap games / 53 Helmond Sport games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: De Graafschap 46% | Draw 25% | Helmond Sport 29%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | Helmond Sport 3.45. De Graafschap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is De Graafschap at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on De Graafschap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 70% | Helmond Sport 40% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights