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Prediction vindicated as De Graafschap edge out Excelsior 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

De Graafschap beat Excelsior 2-1 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 29, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 2.12 xG and Excelsior 1.22 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.42 / defence 0.85 against Excelsior attack 1.10 / defence 0.92, drawn from 66/28 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 57% | Draw 22% | Excelsior 21%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 68%, Excelsior 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

De Graafschap's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Excelsior's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.61 PPG, Excelsior 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the De Graafschap win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights