🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs Excelsior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Excelsior travel to Stadion De Vijverberg to take on De Graafschap. The game is scheduled for Friday 7 March 2025, 19:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, De Graafschap have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

De Graafschap's home record at Stadion De Vijverberg: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — De Graafschap are significantly better at Stadion De Vijverberg than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Excelsior stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Excelsior have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: De Graafschap 1.40 PPG, Excelsior 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for De Graafschap, 1 for Excelsior and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2024, ended 1–3 with Excelsior winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

De Graafschap in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

Excelsior in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 64% and Excelsior 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (De Graafschap 68% | Excelsior 68%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 2.12 xG and Excelsior 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.418 / defence 0.852 | Excelsior attack 1.099 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.627 / away 1.298. De Graafschap carry an above-average attack strength of 1.418 — their λ of 2.12 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 66 De Graafschap games / 28 Excelsior games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: De Graafschap 57% | Draw 22% | Excelsior 21%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | Excelsior 4.76. The model has a clear lean to De Graafschap (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.12 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is De Graafschap at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.33 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 60% | Excelsior 50% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights