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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Emmen defy the odds to beat De Graafschap 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Emmen beat De Graafschap 2-3 at De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 6, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.85 xG and Emmen 1.00 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Emmen outscored their 1.00 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.99 / defence 1.02 against Emmen attack 0.83 / defence 1.13, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 57% | Draw 23% | Emmen 20%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Emmen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 60%, Emmen 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

De Graafschap's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Emmen's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.57 PPG, Emmen 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Emmen win broke the near-deadlock. De Graafschap (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Emmen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights