🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs Emmen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 6 as De Graafschap welcome Emmen to De Vijverberg. Kick-off is set for Friday 5 September 2025 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

De Graafschap's home record at De Vijverberg: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at De Vijverberg. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — De Graafschap are significantly better at De Vijverberg than their overall form suggests.

Emmen — All Games: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Emmen have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Emmen have posted 4W 0D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: De Graafschap 1.30 PPG, Emmen 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for De Graafschap, 3 for Emmen and 1 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jan 2025, ended 4–0 with De Graafschap winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

De Graafschap in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

Emmen in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 57% versus Emmen 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 60% | Emmen 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.85 xG and Emmen 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.991 / defence 1.022 | Emmen attack 0.829 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.656 / away 1.176. Data: 41 De Graafschap games / 42 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: De Graafschap 57% | Draw 23% | Emmen 20%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 1.75 | Draw 4.35 | Emmen 5.00. The model has a clear lean to De Graafschap (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is De Graafschap at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: De Graafschap 40% | Emmen 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights