De Graafschap 2-3 Emmen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs Emmen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 6 as De Graafschap welcome Emmen to De Vijverberg. Kick-off is set for Friday 5 September 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
De Graafschap's home record at De Vijverberg: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at De Vijverberg. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — De Graafschap are significantly better at De Vijverberg than their overall form suggests.
Emmen — All Games: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Emmen have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Emmen have posted 4W 0D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: De Graafschap 1.30 PPG, Emmen 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for De Graafschap, 3 for Emmen and 1 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jan 2025, ended 4–0 with De Graafschap winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
De Graafschap in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Emmen in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 57% versus Emmen 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 60% | Emmen 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.85 xG and Emmen 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.991 / defence 1.022 | Emmen attack 0.829 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.656 / away 1.176. Data: 41 De Graafschap games / 42 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 57% | Draw 23% | Emmen 20%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 1.75 | Draw 4.35 | Emmen 5.00. The model has a clear lean to De Graafschap (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is De Graafschap at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: De Graafschap 40% | Emmen 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Emmen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 5 Sep 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 57% | Draw 23% | Emmen 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 53% | xG De Graafschap 1.85 / Emmen 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.991 / def 1.022 | Emmen attack 0.829 / def 1.129 | league avg home 1.656 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Emmen xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Emmen kick off?
De Graafschap vs Emmen kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 5 September 2025 at De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Emmen?
De Graafschap 2 - 3 Emmen.
Where is De Graafschap vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Emmen part of?
De Graafschap vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 57% chance of winning, Emmen a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both De Graafschap and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Emmen?
Record (6 meetings): De Graafschap 2W | Draws 1 | Emmen 3W.
What form are De Graafschap and Emmen in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Emmen (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates De Graafschap's attack at 0.99x the league average against Emmen's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.85 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Emmen's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
57%
1.74
23%
4.43
20%
4.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
2.85
1.00
Emmen xG
1.74
57%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
4.99
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
16%
6.38
Win to Nil
21%
4.72
3%
31.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.7 | 10.7 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.00 for Emmen, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Emmen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
De Graafschap's recent record stands at 19W 9D 14L from 42 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Emmen, meanwhile, have gone 18W 5D 19L across 42 games — 1.40 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Emmen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: De Graafschap on 1.57 PPG, Emmen on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, De Graafschap have managed 14W 3D 4L from 21 games — 2.14 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.57 PPG overall — De Graafschap are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Emmen's away record stands at 10W 1D 10L across 21 trips, a 1.48 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
De Graafschap are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.45 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Early Season
Emmen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Emmen in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 19W 9D 14L in their last 42 games (1.57 PPG), while Emmen have gone 18W 5D 19L in their last 42 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Emmen away?
De Graafschap's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 2.14 PPG; Emmen away: 1.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between De Graafschap and Emmen runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 11 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Jan 2025, when De Graafschap won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
De Graafschap's record when hosting Emmen specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
De Graafschap
1
Draws
5
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Emmen?
From 9 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 3, Emmen have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 11 September 2026, when Emmen 1-2 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Emmen?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 52%, Emmen 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (De Graafschap) and 57% (Emmen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Emmen in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Emmen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 38% of Emmen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is De Graafschap vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of De Graafschap's matches and 57% of Emmen's.
Do De Graafschap and Emmen tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Emmen in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Emmen defy the odds to beat De Graafschap 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat De Graafschap 2-3 at De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 6, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.85 xG and Emmen 1.00 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Emmen outscored their 1.00 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.99 / defence 1.02 against Emmen attack 0.83 / defence 1.13, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 57% | Draw 23% | Emmen 20%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Emmen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 60%, Emmen 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Emmen's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.57 PPG, Emmen 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Emmen win broke the near-deadlock. De Graafschap (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Emmen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.