🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as De Graafschap edge out Dordrecht 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

De Graafschap beat Dordrecht 2-1 at De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 31, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.57 xG and Dordrecht 1.51 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.08 / defence 1.16 against Dordrecht attack 0.89 / defence 0.91, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 39% | Draw 25% | Dordrecht 36%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 63%, Dordrecht 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

De Graafschap's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Dordrecht's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.64 PPG, Dordrecht 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the De Graafschap win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights