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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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De Graafschap and Almere City FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at De Vijverberg, Quarter-finals, as De Graafschap and Almere City FC drew 2-2 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 2.55 xG and Almere City FC 1.59 xG, a combined 4.15. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.26 / defence 0.98 against Almere City FC attack 1.15 / defence 1.23, drawn from 76/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 58% | Draw 18% | Almere City FC 23%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 59% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 63%, Almere City FC 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

De Graafschap's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Almere City FC's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. De Graafschap (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights