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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as ADO Den Haag edge out De Graafschap 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

ADO Den Haag beat De Graafschap 1-2 at De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 33, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.26 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.97 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.13 / defence 1.13 against ADO Den Haag attack 1.18 / defence 0.72, drawn from 69/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 24% | Draw 22% | ADO Den Haag 54%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 63%, ADO Den Haag 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

De Graafschap's trading profile (71 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

ADO Den Haag's trading profile (71 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.66 PPG, ADO Den Haag 2.01 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the ADO Den Haag win broke the near-deadlock. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights