Cambuur 1-1 Helmond Sport – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cambuur at 46%, yet in-form Helmond Sport provide a compelling counter-argument — this Cambuur vs Helmond Sport fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cambuur and Helmond Sport meet at Cambuur Stadion in Eerste Divisie (matchday 38). This fixture gets under way on Friday 10 May 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Form
Cambuur (all games): 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Cambuur's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Helmond Sport's record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Helmond Sport's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Helmond Sport are 0.90 PPG clear of Cambuur over their recent games (1.60 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Cambuur, 1 for Helmond Sport and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 1 Sep 2023, ended Cambuur 1–2 Helmond Sport — a Helmond Sport win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Cambuur — key trading statistics (last 71 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Helmond Sport — key trading statistics (last 71 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambuur 56% versus Helmond Sport 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 69% | Helmond Sport 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 1.66 xG and Helmond Sport 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 0.991 / defence 1.386 | Helmond Sport attack 0.637 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.650 / away 1.364. Helmond Sport's attack rating of 0.637 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.20. Cambuur's defence rating of 1.386 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Helmond Sport's projected output up. Data: built from Cambuur's last 37 games and Helmond Sport's last 75.
Result probabilities: Cambuur 46% | Draw 28% | Helmond Sport 26%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 2.16 | Draw 3.62 | Helmond Sport 3.83. Cambuur hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cambuur as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Helmond Sport (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cambuur if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Cambuur's last 10 home games and Helmond Sport's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Cambuur 80% (last 10 home games) | Helmond Sport 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs Helmond Sport | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 38 | Venue: Cambuur Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 10 May 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 46% | Draw 28% | Helmond Sport 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Cambuur 1.66 / Helmond Sport 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 0.991 / def 1.386 | Helmond Sport attack 0.637 / def 1.012 | league avg home 1.650 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Helmond Sport xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cambuur vs Helmond Sport FAQs
What time does Cambuur vs Helmond Sport kick off?
Cambuur vs Helmond Sport kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 10 May 2024 at Cambuur Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs Helmond Sport?
Cambuur 1 - 1 Helmond Sport.
Where is Cambuur vs Helmond Sport being played?
The match is being played at Cambuur Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs Helmond Sport part of?
Cambuur vs Helmond Sport is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 38) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs Helmond Sport?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 46% chance of winning, Helmond Sport a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs Helmond Sport?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Cambuur and Helmond Sport will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Cambuur vs Helmond Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Cambuur's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Helmond Sport's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. Flip it around — Helmond Sport's attack (0.64x) against Cambuur's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from Cambuur's last 37 games and Helmond Sport's last 75 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
46%
2.16
28%
3.62
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Cambuur xG
Total xG
2.86
1.20
Helmond Sport xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
19%
5.23
Win to Nil
14%
7.20
5%
20.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.4 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cambuur vs Helmond Sport Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs Helmond Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Cambuur and Helmond Sport expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Cambuur and 1.20 for Helmond Sport, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs Helmond Sport?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cambuur's recent record stands at 18W 11D 42L from 71 games, a 0.92 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five.
Helmond Sport, meanwhile, have gone 25W 18D 28L across 71 games — 1.31 PPG, with L-W-W-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.92 PPG for Cambuur against 1.31 for Helmond Sport. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Cambuur have managed 9W 5D 21L from their last 35 home games — 0.91 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Helmond Sport's away record stands at 8W 9D 18L across their last 35 away games, a 0.94 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Cambuur are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Helmond Sport are on 1.24 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 71 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Current Season
Helmond Sport
Current Season
Cambuur (Home) vs Helmond Sport (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cambuur
Current Season
Helmond Sport
Current Season
❓ Cambuur vs Helmond Sport Form FAQs
What form are Cambuur and Helmond Sport in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 18W 11D 42L in their last 71 games (0.92 PPG), while Helmond Sport have gone 25W 18D 28L in their last 71 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or Helmond Sport away?
Helmond Sport's away record (0.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 0.91 PPG; Helmond Sport away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Cambuur and Helmond Sport, the earliest from September 2023. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was on 16 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cambuur have gone 0W 2D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Helmond Sport — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Cambuur
3
Draws
2
Helmond Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ Cambuur vs Helmond Sport H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Helmond Sport?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Cambuur have won 1, Helmond Sport have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and Helmond Sport last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 March 2026: Helmond Sport 0-1 Cambuur.
Who has won more matches between Cambuur and Helmond Sport?
Helmond Sport have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambuur 54%, Helmond Sport 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Cambuur and 49% for Helmond Sport. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cambuur have failed to score in 34% of games; Helmond Sport in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / Helmond Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cambuur vs Helmond Sport Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cambuur and Helmond Sport matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Cambuur's recent matches and 43% of Helmond Sport's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cambuur and Helmond Sport matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Cambuur's matches and 49% of Helmond Sport's.
Do Cambuur and Helmond Sport matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Cambuur's recent matches and 69% of Helmond Sport's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cambuur and Helmond Sport share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Cambuur Stadion, Regular Season - 38, as Cambuur and Helmond Sport drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.66 xG and Helmond Sport 1.20 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 0.99 / defence 1.39 against Helmond Sport attack 0.64 / defence 1.01, drawn from 37/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 46% | Draw 28% | Helmond Sport 26%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 69%, Helmond Sport 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Helmond Sport's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cambuur 0.92 PPG, Helmond Sport 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cambuur (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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