Cambuur vs Den Bosch – Match Report

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Shock result as Den Bosch defy the odds to beat Cambuur 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Den Bosch beat Cambuur 1-2 at Kooi Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.08 xG and Den Bosch 1.06 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Den Bosch outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 0.75 / defence 0.82 against Den Bosch attack 0.90 / defence 0.93, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cambuur 35% | Draw 31% | Den Bosch 34%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Den Bosch win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 62%, Den Bosch 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cambuur's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Den Bosch's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cambuur 1.36 PPG, Den Bosch 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Den Bosch win broke the near-deadlock. Den Bosch (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights