Cambuur 1-2 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis

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Poisson rates Cambuur at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cambuur vs Den Bosch encounter.

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Match Analysis

Cambuur host Den Bosch at Kooi Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 26 November 2024 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Cambuur — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Cambuur's home record at Kooi Stadion: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Kooi Stadion this season.

Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Den Bosch have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Den Bosch have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

On current form, Cambuur have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Cambuur have won 1, Den Bosch 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Dec 2023, ended 1–3 with Den Bosch winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Cambuur in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Den Bosch in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambuur 62% versus Den Bosch 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 62% | Den Bosch 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 1.08 xG and Den Bosch 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 0.752 / defence 0.816 | Den Bosch attack 0.897 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.544 / away 1.449. Cambuur's attack strength of 0.752 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 53 Cambuur games / 53 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Cambuur 35% | Draw 31% | Den Bosch 34%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Den Bosch 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Cambuur are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cambuur offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 40% | Den Bosch 40% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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