Cambuur vs Den Bosch – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cambuur's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Den Bosch's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. The same calculation in reverse, Den Bosch's attack versus Cambuur's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
35%
2.85
31%
3.24
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Cambuur xG
Total xG
2.14
1.06
Den Bosch xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
12%
8.24
12%
8.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 12.5 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Cambuur and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Cambuur and 1.06 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.