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Shock result as Willem II defy the odds to beat Almere City FC 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Willem II beat Almere City FC 0-1 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 2.15 xG and Willem II 1.21 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Almere City FC fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Willem II attack 0.83 / defence 1.47, drawn from 1/2 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 59% | Draw 20% | Willem II 21%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Willem II win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 49%, Willem II 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Almere City FC's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 49% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Willem II's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Almere City FC 0.71 PPG, Willem II 0.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Willem II win broke the near-deadlock. Almere City FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line. Willem II (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights