Almere City FC 0-1 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Almere City FC at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Almere City FC vs Willem II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Almere City FC and Willem II meet at Yanmar Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Friday 22 August 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Almere City FC (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Almere City FC have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Almere City FC's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 games at Yanmar Stadion this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Willem II have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Willem II have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Willem II's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Almere City FC's 1.10 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Willem II's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Almere City FC 2W, Willem II 1W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2025, ended 2–0 with Almere City FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Almere City FC — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
Willem II — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 40% versus Willem II 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 49% | Willem II 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 2.15 xG and Willem II 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.860 / defence 1.150 | Willem II attack 0.828 / defence 1.466. League average goals — home 1.704 / away 1.275. Willem II bring a strong defensive rating of 1.466 — this is suppressing Almere City FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 1 Almere City FC games / 2 Willem II games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 59% | Draw 20% | Willem II 21%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 1.69 | Draw 5.00 | Willem II 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Almere City FC (59%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.15 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Almere City FC are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.36 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Almere City FC 50% | Willem II 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs Willem II | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 22 Aug 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 59% | Draw 20% | Willem II 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 62% | xG Almere City FC 2.15 / Willem II 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.860 / def 1.150 | Willem II attack 0.828 / def 1.466 | league avg home 1.704 / away 1.275 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Willem II xG
62%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs Willem II kick off?
Almere City FC vs Willem II kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 22 August 2025 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs Willem II?
Almere City FC 0 - 1 Willem II.
Where is Almere City FC vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs Willem II part of?
Almere City FC vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 59% chance of winning, Willem II a 21% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Almere City FC and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Willem II?
Record (4 meetings): Almere City FC 2W | Draws 1 | Willem II 1W.
What form are Almere City FC and Willem II in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-D-W. Willem II (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Almere City FC's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Willem II's defensive record (1.47x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.15. Flip it around — Willem II's attack (0.83x) against Almere City FC's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
The sample (1/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
59%
1.70
20%
4.90
21%
4.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
3.36
1.21
Willem II xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.90
20%
Draw
4.79
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
12%
8.58
Win to Nil
17%
5.73
2%
41.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.21 for Willem II, a combined total of 3.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs Willem II?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Almere City FC come into this having played 35 games, going 5W 10D 20L for 0.71 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-D-W. It's still early in the season for Almere City FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Willem II sit at 0.63 PPG from 35 outings (5W 7D 23L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Willem II, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.71 PPG for Almere City FC against 0.63 for Willem II. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Almere City FC's home form reads 2W 5D 10L across 17 games on their own ground, a 0.65 PPG return.
Away from home, Willem II have taken 0.76 points per game from 17 outings (3W 4D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Almere City FC are averaging 0.77 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 0.97 scored and 1.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II in 60%.
Last 35 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Early Season
Willem II
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and Willem II in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 5W 10D 20L in their last 35 games (0.71 PPG), while Willem II have gone 5W 7D 23L in their last 35 (0.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or Willem II away?
Willem II's away record (0.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 0.65 PPG; Willem II away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Willem II have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Almere City FC have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Willem II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Almere City FC
1
Draws
5
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Willem II?
From 8 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 2, Willem II have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Willem II 2-0 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and Willem II?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 47%, Willem II 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Almere City FC) and 41% (Willem II).
On the defensive side: Almere City FC have failed to score in 41% of games; Willem II in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play Willem II?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Almere City FC's recent matches and 53% of Willem II's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Almere City FC vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Almere City FC's recent games and 41% of Willem II's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Almere City FC and Willem II tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Willem II in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Willem II defy the odds to beat Almere City FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat Almere City FC 0-1 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 2.15 xG and Willem II 1.21 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Almere City FC fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Willem II attack 0.83 / defence 1.47, drawn from 1/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 59% | Draw 20% | Willem II 21%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Willem II win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 49%, Willem II 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 49% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Willem II's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Almere City FC 0.71 PPG, Willem II 0.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Willem II win broke the near-deadlock. Almere City FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line. Willem II (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.