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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Jong AZ cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Almere City FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jong AZ beat Almere City FC 1-3 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 2.09 xG and Jong AZ 1.43 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Almere City FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Jong AZ outscored their 1.43 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 1.10 / defence 1.06 against Jong AZ attack 0.99 / defence 1.05, drawn from 12/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 53% | Draw 21% | Jong AZ 26%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual Jong AZ win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 52%, Jong AZ 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Almere City FC's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Jong AZ's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Jong AZ arrived the stronger side — 1.22 PPG against 0.72. Form held, and they took the win. Almere City FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong AZ (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.61 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights