🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Almere City FC at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Almere City FC vs Jong AZ fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Almere City FC host Jong AZ at Yanmar Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 24 October 2025 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Almere City FC stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Almere City FC at Yanmar Stadion this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong AZ have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong AZ have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Almere City FC at 0.80 PPG versus Jong AZ's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Almere City FC, 3 for Jong AZ and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Apr 2023, ended 2–1 with Almere City FC winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Almere City FC in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

Jong AZ in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 44% versus Jong AZ 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 52% | Jong AZ 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 2.09 xG and Jong AZ 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 1.102 / defence 1.057 | Jong AZ attack 0.990 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 1.803 / away 1.362. Data: 12 Almere City FC games / 50 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Almere City FC 53% | Draw 21% | Jong AZ 26%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 1.89 | Draw 4.76 | Jong AZ 3.85. Almere City FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.09 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Almere City FC at 53% — moderate model lean.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.51 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Almere City FC 50% | Jong AZ 70% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights