Almere City FC vs Dordrecht Prediction & Preview
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Poisson model favours Almere City FC (57%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Almere City FC face Dordrecht.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dordrecht make the trip to Yanmar Stadion to face Almere City FC in Eerste Divisie (matchday 31). The match kicks off on Friday 19 March 2027 at 19:00 UK time.
Form
Almere City FC (all games): 6W 0D 4L across their last 10 — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Almere City FC have gone 7W 0D 3L in their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Dordrecht's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Dordrecht have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Almere City FC. A 1.00 PPG lead over Dordrecht (1.80 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Almere City FC have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins, with Dordrecht managing 1 and 2 draws.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 25 Sep 2026, ended Almere City FC 2–3 Dordrecht — a Dordrecht win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Almere City FC and goals — 4 wins from 7 H2H matches and an average of 3.3 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Almere City FC — key trading statistics (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Dordrecht — key trading statistics (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Almere City FC 65% and Dordrecht 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Almere City FC 73% | Dordrecht 60%). Note also that Dordrecht surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while Almere City FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.93 xG and Dordrecht 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.942 / defence 0.798 | Dordrecht attack 0.818 / defence 1.158. League average goals — home 1.767 / away 1.587. Almere City FC have a tight defence (rating 0.798), which is pulling Dordrecht's projected output down. Data: built from Almere City FC's last 52 games and Dordrecht's last 52.
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 57% | Draw 23% | Dordrecht 19%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 1.74 | Draw 4.28 | Dordrecht 5.20. The model has a clear lean to Almere City FC (57%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Almere City FC as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Almere City FC's last 10 home games and Dordrecht's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Almere City FC 40% (last 10 home games) | Dordrecht 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 31 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 19 March 2027 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 57% | Draw 23% | Dordrecht 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Almere City FC 1.93 / Dordrecht 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.942 / def 0.798 | Dordrecht attack 0.818 / def 1.158 | league avg home 1.767 / away 1.587 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Dordrecht xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Almere City FC vs Dordrecht FAQs
What time does Almere City FC vs Dordrecht kick off?
Almere City FC vs Dordrecht is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 19 March 2027 at Yanmar Stadion.
Where is Almere City FC vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs Dordrecht part of?
Almere City FC vs Dordrecht is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 31) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 57% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Almere City FC and Dordrecht will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Almere City FC vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Almere City FC's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Dordrecht's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.93. Flip it around — Dordrecht's attack (0.82x) against Almere City FC's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from Almere City FC's last 52 games and Dordrecht's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
57%
1.74
23%
4.28
19%
5.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
2.96
1.04
Dordrecht xG
1.74
57%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
5.20
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
15%
6.87
Win to Nil
20%
4.92
3%
35.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 10.3 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Almere City FC vs Dordrecht Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.04 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs Dordrecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Almere City FC's recent record stands at 28W 6D 18L from 52 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-W in the last five.
Dordrecht, meanwhile, have gone 15W 14D 23L across 52 games — 1.13 PPG, with L-W-L-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Almere City FC by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dordrecht heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Almere City FC have managed 15W 3D 7L from their last 25 home games — 1.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dordrecht's away record stands at 6W 8D 11L across their last 25 away games, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Almere City FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Almere City FC are averaging 2.06 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.27 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almere City FC have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Dordrecht in 63%.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Blended
Dordrecht
Blended
Almere City FC (Home) vs Dordrecht (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Almere City FC
Blended
Dordrecht
Blended
❓ Almere City FC vs Dordrecht Form FAQs
What form are Almere City FC and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 28W 6D 18L in their last 52 games (1.73 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 15W 14D 23L in their last 52 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or Dordrecht away?
Almere City FC's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 1.92 PPG; Dordrecht away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 7 H2H matches between Almere City FC and Dordrecht, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 25 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Almere City FC won Almere City FC 4-1 Dordrecht on 17 Apr 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Almere City FC have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Dordrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Almere City FC
2
Draws
1
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Almere City FC vs Dordrecht H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Dordrecht?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Almere City FC have won 4, Dordrecht have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and Dordrecht last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 September 2026: Dordrecht 3-2 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and Dordrecht?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 52%, Dordrecht 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Almere City FC and 68% for Dordrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almere City FC keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Almere City FC vs Dordrecht Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Almere City FC and Dordrecht matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Almere City FC's games and 72% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Almere City FC and Dordrecht matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Almere City FC's matches and 68% of Dordrecht's.
Do Almere City FC and Dordrecht matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Almere City FC's recent matches and 76% of Dordrecht's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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