Almere City FC vs De Graafschap Prediction & Preview
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Poisson model rates Almere City FC at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Almere City FC face De Graafschap.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Yanmar Stadion plays host to Almere City FC versus De Graafschap in Eerste Divisie (matchday 29). Kick-off: Sunday 7 March 2027 at 15:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Almere City FC have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Almere City FC have posted 7W 0D 3L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
De Graafschap's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, De Graafschap have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Almere City FC, 1.40 for De Graafschap — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 9 H2H matches in our data, Almere City FC edge it 4 wins to 3, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.4 per game across the 9 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 29 Aug 2026, ended Almere City FC 4–1 De Graafschap — a Almere City FC win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Almere City FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 53 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
De Graafschap goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 53 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Almere City FC 66% and De Graafschap 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Almere City FC 74% | De Graafschap 70%). Note also that De Graafschap surrender HT leads in 35% of cases while Almere City FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.64 xG and De Graafschap 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.941 / defence 0.797 | De Graafschap attack 0.913 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.767 / away 1.586. Almere City FC have a tight defence (rating 0.797), which is pulling De Graafschap's projected output down. Data: built from Almere City FC's last 52 games and De Graafschap's last 51.
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 48% | Draw 26% | De Graafschap 26%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 2.09 | Draw 3.84 | De Graafschap 3.85. Almere City FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Almere City FC as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Almere City FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Almere City FC's last 10 home games and De Graafschap's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Almere City FC 40% (last 10 home games) | De Graafschap 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 29 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 7 March 2027 at 15:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 48% | Draw 26% | De Graafschap 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Almere City FC 1.64 / De Graafschap 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.941 / def 0.797 | De Graafschap attack 0.913 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.767 / away 1.586 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.15
De Graafschap xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Almere City FC vs De Graafschap FAQs
What time does Almere City FC vs De Graafschap kick off?
Almere City FC vs De Graafschap is scheduled to kick off at 15:45 UK time on Sunday 7 March 2027 at Yanmar Stadion.
Where is Almere City FC vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs De Graafschap part of?
Almere City FC vs De Graafschap is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 29) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 48% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Almere City FC and De Graafschap will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Almere City FC vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Almere City FC's attack at 0.94x the league average against De Graafschap's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — De Graafschap's attack (0.91x) against Almere City FC's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from Almere City FC's last 52 games and De Graafschap's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
48%
2.09
26%
3.84
26%
3.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
2.80
1.15
De Graafschap xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
3.85
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
19%
5.17
Win to Nil
15%
6.61
5%
19.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.6 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Almere City FC vs De Graafschap Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.15 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Almere City FC's recent record stands at 28W 6D 19L from 53 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-W in the last five.
De Graafschap, meanwhile, have gone 22W 13D 18L across 53 games — 1.49 PPG, with D-W-L-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.70 PPG for Almere City FC against 1.49 for De Graafschap. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Almere City FC have managed 15W 3D 7L from their last 25 home games — 1.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
De Graafschap's away record stands at 9W 8D 8L across their last 25 away games, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Almere City FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Almere City FC are averaging 2.04 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.77 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almere City FC have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; De Graafschap in 75%.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
Almere City FC (Home) vs De Graafschap (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Almere City FC
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
❓ Almere City FC vs De Graafschap Form FAQs
What form are Almere City FC and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 28W 6D 19L in their last 53 games (1.70 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 22W 13D 18L in their last 53 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or De Graafschap away?
Almere City FC's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 1.92 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Almere City FC won De Graafschap 1-4 Almere City FC on 29 Aug 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Almere City FC have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against De Graafschap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Almere City FC
2
Draws
3
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Almere City FC vs De Graafschap H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and De Graafschap?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Almere City FC have won 4, De Graafschap have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and De Graafschap last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: De Graafschap 1-4 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and De Graafschap?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 57% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 52%, De Graafschap 76% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Almere City FC and 72% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almere City FC keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Almere City FC vs De Graafschap Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Almere City FC and De Graafschap matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Almere City FC's games and 76% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Almere City FC and De Graafschap matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Almere City FC's matches and 72% of De Graafschap's.
Do Almere City FC and De Graafschap matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Almere City FC's recent matches and 84% of De Graafschap's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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