Almere City FC vs De Graafschap – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Almere City FC at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Almere City FC vs De Graafschap encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Yanmar Stadion plays host to Almere City FC versus De Graafschap in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Sunday 7 March 2027 at 15:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Almere City FC have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Almere City FC have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Almere City FC have posted 6W 1D 3L at Yanmar Stadion — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
De Graafschap's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, De Graafschap have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in Almere City FC's favour (1.70 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Almere City FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, De Graafschap in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Almere City FC lead 4W to 3W over the last 9 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2026, ended 4–1 with Almere City FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Almere City FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
De Graafschap goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Almere City FC 64% and De Graafschap 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Almere City FC 72% | De Graafschap 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.58 xG and De Graafschap 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.828 / defence 0.741 | De Graafschap attack 0.876 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 1.933 / away 1.580. Almere City FC's defence rating of 0.741 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 Almere City FC games / 45 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 50% | Draw 25% | De Graafschap 25%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | De Graafschap 4.00. Almere City FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Almere City FC as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Almere City FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Almere City FC 60% | De Graafschap 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Mar 2027, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 50% | Draw 25% | De Graafschap 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Almere City FC 1.58 / De Graafschap 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.828 / def 0.741 | De Graafschap attack 0.876 / def 0.988 | league avg home 1.933 / away 1.580 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.03
De Graafschap xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs De Graafschap kick off?
Almere City FC vs De Graafschap is scheduled to kick off at 15:45 on Sunday 7 March 2027 at Yanmar Stadion.
Where is Almere City FC vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs De Graafschap part of?
Almere City FC vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 50% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Almere City FC and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and De Graafschap?
Record (9 meetings): Almere City FC 4W | Draws 2 | De Graafschap 3W.
What form are Almere City FC and De Graafschap in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. De Graafschap (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Almere City FC's attack at 0.83x the league average against De Graafschap's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — De Graafschap's attack (0.88x) against Almere City FC's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
50%
1.99
25%
3.97
25%
4.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
2.61
1.03
De Graafschap xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
4.06
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
21%
4.86
Win to Nil
18%
5.55
5%
19.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.0 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.03 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Almere City FC's recent record stands at 25W 6D 16L from 47 games, a 1.72 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Almere City FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
De Graafschap, meanwhile, have gone 19W 11D 17L across 47 games — 1.45 PPG, with L-L-L-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.72 PPG for Almere City FC against 1.45 for De Graafschap. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Almere City FC have managed 14W 3D 6L from 23 games — 1.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
De Graafschap's away record stands at 9W 7D 7L across 23 trips, a 1.48 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Almere City FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Almere City FC are averaging 2.11 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.81 scored and 1.77 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Almere City FC have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; De Graafschap in 74%.
Last 47 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Early Season
De Graafschap
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 25W 6D 16L in their last 47 games (1.72 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 19W 11D 17L in their last 47 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or De Graafschap away?
Almere City FC's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 1.96 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Almere City FC won 1-4 on 29 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Almere City FC have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against De Graafschap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Almere City FC
2
Draws
3
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and De Graafschap?
From 9 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 4, De Graafschap have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when De Graafschap 1-4 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and De Graafschap?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 52%, De Graafschap 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Almere City FC and 70% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almere City FC keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Almere City FC's games and 74% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Almere City FC vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Almere City FC's matches and 70% of De Graafschap's.
Do Almere City FC and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.